Formula of Success in a Down Economy

When the economy took a turn for the worst in Q4 of last year, I was faced with determining how to best manage the agency during the turbulent times. Instead of only relying on a qualitative strategy to ensure the agency remained strong, my main objective was to develop a measurable formula for success—a formula that would define the incoming revenue Rise Interactive could expect.

I thought through the various components of revenue and developed the following formula:

Expected Revenue = Existing Revenue + Up-selling Opportunities + New Revenue

Each one of the components that make up revenue is derived from a few attributes:

Existing Revenue=Number of Existing Customers X Price per Customer X Retention rate

New Revenue=Number of Leads X Price per Customer X Conversation Rate

Up-selling Opportunities=Number of Opportunities X Conversation Rate X Price

The five components of these formulas are conversion rate, retention rate, price per customer, up-selling opportunities and the number of new leads.  In a down economy, each of these variables decreases due to macroeconomic factors.  Given this information, where should you focus your time to grow your revenue?  In my opinion, the only thing you can substantially improve during a down economy is the number of leads.  If you increase the number of new leads, you can reach your revenue goals provided that the leads grow enough to off-set the other declines.

To increase our leads, Rise developed and implemented a marketing plan in January of 2009.  Although each company will differ, it took Rise only six weeks to generate enough leads per month to put us on track for our annual revenue goal.

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Jon,
Of course! It's back to a matter of numbers. Especially considering the uncertain times, getting new leads is definitely a better bet. Thanks for the insight!

Kim,

Thank you so much for your post. There are definitely things that you can do to improve conversion rate, but in general I believe that in a down economy your close rate should lower. My experience has been that sales cycle becomes longer due to uncertainty in the market place.

My general feeling is that you will have a harder time being able to improve conversion rate than you will be able to generate new leads during this time period.

I agree that the development of a quantitative view of marketing is indeed important! However, regarding your point about leads being the only area you can substantially improve (in the down economy), I wonder if the focus could be expanded to include conversion rate. When you consider that a small change to a campaign (whether promotional or design in nature) might have a significant impact to the overall conversion rate, I think it's something that one should keep in mind.

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